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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.