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On Sunday, the Central African Republic will undertake a significant series of four votes, including the presidential race, parliament, and municipal offices.

A Competitive Presidential Field

A field of seven contenders are vying for the top office, among them former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were cleared to run by the constitutional court after initial bans. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the last two elections, while Dondra briefly served under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The challengers aims to tap into widespread frustration in a country where violence remains a daily reality. Over half a million people are displaced within their own country, with a comparable figure living as exiles in neighbouring countries.

"This is an opportunity to commend the remarkable recovery of the nation," said a senior UN diplomat, adding that challenges remain.

The Incumbent's Path

Despite the challenges, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is widely expected to extend his run. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when named prime minister, serving until a insurgent alliance overthrew the government in 2013, triggering a sectarian conflict.

After a chaotic transition period, his reputation for impartiality from the main militias powered his runoff win in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

There are fears that logistical problems and insecurity could disrupt the electoral process, particularly in the countryside. The UN stabilization force, Minusca, is providing security and organizational aid that the state's crumbling infrastructure is unable to provide.

Additional problems include the electoral roll being published only online, a significant barrier in a country with scarce online access. These irregularities have led to an electoral boycott and could, according to observers, "disenfranchise large segments of the population."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents fear that another term for Touadéra—made possible by a 2023 charter change that abolished term limits and lengthened mandates—would entail expanded sway for foreign actors.

The president has put faith in the private military group Wagner for his protection, and even after its founder's death, has resisted calls to integrate its fighters into a successor entity. Meanwhile, Rwanda has pursued a different approach, focusing on business interests within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Allegations have claimed the government removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded facility to make way for a foreign-run livestock operation. A pro-opposition commentary accused the leadership of being "determined to sell off the country bit by bit."

Despite a newly signed agreement with rebel groups offering a glimmer of stabilization, the election proceeds under a shadow of doubt and external rivalry.