Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.