‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a official of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In a financial hub, media reports say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their fuel reserves have depleted with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and authorities say supplies are being reallocated to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been triggered by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.